Well it’s that time of year apparently, and it’s time for the Worlds form guide. This time around I have applied a confidential, statistical approach to how things are worked out. (In other words I guessed.) My guess included the following factors:

  • Results at previous world championships
  • Results at the most recent regatta the sailor has competed in.
  • The gear they are using
  • The amount of time they have spent on preparation

This system places greater emphasis on regatta results than training so the results are a but different to some other form guides out there. I am not trying to predict the finishing order, I am giving odds on the overall winner.

2:1 Simon Payne

Previous world champion, a recent win at Weston, solid preparation and the latest generation Fastacraft gear places Simon at the top of the list at 2:1.

3:1 Scott Babbage

“Identical” gear to Simon, and a solid preparation places Scott second at 3:1. The main difference between Scott and Simon in the odds is Simon’s previous world championship win.

5:1 Rohan Veal and Andrew McDougall

Rohan’s previous results and amount of time on the water have kept him high in the 5:1 odds here, even after retiring. He claims his fitness isn’t as good as it used to be, but you won’t see him puffing and wheezing his way around the course. The new prototype Bladerider that he is apparently bringing won’t be any slower than a standard one.

Amac’s solid performances in recent regattas are placing him well here. He will be right there, but failing to capture that number 1 slot perviously at the worlds is keeping him at 5:1.

7:1 Matt Belcher

Matt is the exception to my formula. It calculated him lower because he has not competed at a world championships before. That same excuse didn’t stop him winning the Australian nationals first time out. Scott beat him fair and square at the NSW states, and Amac at the Victorian States, so he rates below them at 7:1.

10:1 Graham Vials, John Harris and Bora Gulari

Graham, John and Bora are all sailing well and using Bladerider equipment. Bora’s display of foiling tacks is impressive, but it takes more than tacks to win a world championship. John and Graham both appear to be on the pace and are sailing well.

Want to see what other’s think you can read guides from Scott, Phil and the UK.